Fantasy Baseball: Taj Bradley's call

The Rays have opened the season with a historic 10-0 start, and they've done it on the strength of a pitching staff that has allowed just 1.8 runs per game in the early going. And now they're calling up top pitching prospect Taj Bradley to start Wednesday against the Red Sox for his major-league debut. Bradley's call-up comes with some bad news, as Zach Eflin was placed on the IL, retroactive to April 8, with a lower back injury. That should open up at least a couple of turns in the rotation for Bradley with Eflin on the IL until at least April 23, but should Fantasy Baseball players be rushing out to add Bradley?

If you're in a league with daily FAB runs or open free agency and you've got a roster spot to play with, I'd go ahead and add Bradley now, though I wouldn't necessarily make a priority out of dropping a bunch of your FAB budget on him. Not necessarily because he's not likely to be a good pitcher, but because of how the Rays are likely to use him.

No prospect is a sure thing, and Bradley isn't on the level of a Grayson Rodriguez as a pitcher. Scott White had him as his No. 51 prospect coming into the season, and he had this to say about Bradley:

"Bradley is 22 spots behind the previous pitching prospect in these rankings and not a slam-dunk choice to be the next up, but he does offer stability at a notoriously fickle position. While the stuff rates well, his fastball/cutter combo is geared more for weak contact than strikeouts, which should work out fine in a post-juiced ball league but nonetheless feels like a concession of sorts."

And a look at the minor-league numbers backs that up. He posted a 2.57 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A as a 21-year-old last season, but he didn't post the sort of overwhelming strikeout numbers we've gotten used to seeing from top pitching prospects, as he sported a good-not-great 26.5% K rate that dipped to 21.5% in his 59 innings in Triple-A.

But still, he's armed with a mid-to-high 90s fastball, a high-80s slider, a high-80s changeup/splitter, and a high-70s curveball, so he isn't lacking for stuff. The splitter could take a step forward and give him another swing-and-miss pitch, but even if it doesn't, he'll be backed by a good defense and should get pretty good results.

The problem, from a Fantasy perspective in the near term, is that he pitches for the Rays. They're a phenomenal organization, but they've also had no qualms about slow-playing young starters. They'll call up a young pitching prospect for one turn in the rotation, only to send them down for some bullpen depth or something. Bradley may get more of an opportunity than that, but it's not guaranteed, and if Eflin's injury ends up being relatively minor, it might only be a two or three start opportunity either way.

And, the Rays have been weirdly conservative with Bradley's usage this season going back to the spring, when he was throwing one or two innings at a time – he did leave one outing after getting struck on the leg by a comebacker, but he made his next appearance without apparent issue. And, through two starts at Triple-A, Bradley has only thrown seven innings, throwing 55 and 51 pitches in his two outings. Which means we could be looking at a situation where Bradley serves as a glorified opener, throwing maybe 60-70 pitches before being replaced.

The most likely outcome here is Bradley isn't really in line to make an impact for Fantasy. Which means he is by no means a must-add player, at least right now. That being said, he's clearly talented enough to force the issue if he blows hitters away. The Rays are not sentimental about how they handle young pitchers, but if Bradley is overwhelming, he could earn a bigger opportunity than I'm currently projecting.

So, if you've got that roster spot to play with, Bradley is probably a better flier than someone like Bryce Elder, who probably doesn't have much upside. It's a tougher call with a big swing-and-miss pitcher like Andrew Heaney, and in deeper leagues, I'd go with the more sure thing in Heaney. But Bradley's upside is probably higher if he gets a chance to hit it, so it might depend on what you're looking for.